【禁聞】中國債務負擔遭嚴重低估

【新唐人2011年3月14日訊】中共最新數據顯示，中國的債務僅佔中國國內生產總值(GDP)17%，學者表示，中共當局公布的債務遠遠低於實際數字，如果把地方政府和國有銀行的負債計算在內，中國的債務負擔恐怕是目前數據的四倍以上。

根據中共財政部的報告，2010年底中央政府的債務是1.03萬億美元。這相當於佔中國國內生產總值(GDP)17%左右，遠遠低於美國、日本和歐洲主要國家他們的債務佔GDP的比重。

但這個數據並不包括很多大型國企、地方政府、甚至中央部委所持有的債務。渣打中國經濟學家王志浩估計，如果把不確定是否發生的或有負債計算在內，負債比達77％。這個數據是中共官方公布數據的4倍還多。

美國《當代中國研究》雜誌主編程曉農表示，中共當局公布的中央政府債務遠遠低於實際數字。

程曉農:“中共到2010年中央和地方政府的債務總額大概是超過15萬億，是財政收入的百分之一百八十三，這個數字實際上是遠遠低估的，根據中共已經在2009年前所作的初步的調查，地方政府欠的債當中，65%是地方政府必須直接償還的，12%是地方政府擔保的，就是說他負有擔保責任，還有24%是屬於政府兜底的， 實際上不論是地方政府直接償還、擔保、還是兜底，都說明所有債務其實都是政府債務。”

除中共官方公布的債務，據相關數據，截至2010年底，由國家開發銀行和其他政策性銀行發行的債券中，“未償還的債務”總額達到7,850億美元。

程曉農指出，目前中國還有一種”地方融資平臺”，透過地方政府憑空虛構一家公司，代表地方政府向銀行貸款或者發行債券，目地是隱瞞政府債務。

程曉農：“因為中國的地方政府是不允許直接借債的, 到現在為止中共的預算法還沒有修改, 地方政府現在不能借債, 而地方政府又欠十幾萬億的債, 他的償還責任自然就是中共中央政府的財政部 , 所以財政部為了減少自己的責任, 他現在宣稱這些債務的大部分不屬於政府債, 而是公司債, 也就是說他在玩弄概念遊戲。”

由於地方政府債務的隱蔽性，具體數據沒有公布，但中共已經啟動審計。業內保守估計，2010年地方債總額超過1.52萬億美元，債務率超過150%。

程曉農還表示，中共啟動審計的原因就是中共中央現在也不知道到底有多少債務，到最後恐怕還是全民買單:

程曉農：“中共現在實際上是很多地方政府大舉借債, 但並沒有償債能力, 很多地方政府要不就是賴帳, 要不然就是借新債還舊債, 在目前這種情況下, 如果賴帳,就會導致銀行借給地方政府的十幾萬億變成完全的壞帳, 也就是說老百姓存在銀行的十幾萬億存款將泡湯 “

數據顯示，地方融資平臺有54％的貸款期限在五年以上，2011年到2013年是融資平臺貸款集中到期的時間，中共財政部財政科學研究所指出，一些地方融資平臺負債比高達94％，海南島部分地區融資比甚至達300％，大大高於80∼120%的國際風險警戒線。分析人士認為，缺乏透明度與法令規範都會讓地方政府債務風險在未來兩、三年爆發。

新唐人記者林平、王明宇採訪報導。

China's Debt Underestimated

Latest official data shows China's debt to be 17%

of GDP. Some scholars say the officially announced

debt figure is far below the actual debt figure.

Combing the liabilities of local governments and

state-owned banks, China』s debt burden should be

more than four times than the current figure.

According to the Chinese Ministry of Finance's

report, in Dec 2010, the central government』s debt

was USD 1.03 trillion, equivalent to 17% of China』s

GDP. It is much lower than the ratio of debt to GDP

in the U.S., Japan and major European countries.

However, this figure doesn』t include the liabilities

of many large state-owned firms, local governments

and many central government ministries.

Standard Chartered economist Stephen Green

estimates that by accounting for contingent liabilities,

the debt ratio would reach 77%,

4 times China's officially released figure.

The U.S.-based magazine Modern China Studies』

editor-in-chief, Cheng Xiaonong, said that theofficial debt figure announced by the central

government is far below the actual figure.

Cheng: In 2010, the combined debt of

the central and local governments was over

$15 trillion, which was 183% of the fiscal revenue.

This figure is actually quite underestimated.

According to an official preliminary investigation

prior to 2009, 65% of the local governments debts

must be repaid directly by the local governments,

12% was guaranteed by the local governments,

and 24% would be undertaken by the government.

Regardless of the form,

all debts are government debts.

In addition to China's officially announced debts,

as of the end of 2010, out of the bonds issued by

China Development Bank and other policy banks,

the "outstanding debt" amounted to USD 785 billion.

Cheng said, "local financing platforms" exist in China.

These are shell companies that borrow bank loans

or issue bonds on behalf of their local governments,

for the purpose of hiding government debts.

Cheng: Chinese local governments are not allowed

to borrow directly. As China』s current budget law is

still in effect, and local governments have

dozens of trillions of debts, the debt repayment

obligation falls on the Finance Ministry.

In order to reduce its own liabilities, the Ministry now

claims most of these debts to be corporate debts.

That is, they are playing concept games.

Due to the invisibility of local governments』 hidden

debts, the specific data is not disclosed,

but the central authorities have started an audit.

A conservative estimate of total debts raised in 2010

is over USD 1.52 trillion,

exceeding a debt ratio of 150%.

Cheng said, the audit is being carried out, because

CCP』s Central Committee doesn』t know

the real figure. It』s quite possible that

the people will pay the bills.

Cheng: Many local governments raise huge debts,

but they are insolvent. Many local governments bilk.

Others repay old loans by incurring new debts.

Under these circumstances, if the governments bilk,

all of their bank loans will turn completely bad.

That means, over a dozen trillion USDs worth of

people』s deposits in the banks will evaporate.

Statistics show that 54% of the loan terms

by local financing platforms are over 5 years.

2011 to 2013 is a period of concentrated due dates

for loans borrowed by financing platforms.

Finance Ministry』s Research Institute of

Fiscal Science pointed out that some local

financing platforms have debt ratios of up to 94%;

some areas on Hainan Island even reached 300%,

exceeding the 80-120% international risk warning

level. Analysts believe that the lack of transparency

and legal regulations will allow the local

governments』 debt crisis to break out in the next

2 to 3 years.

NTD reporter Lin Ping and Wang Mingyu