【禁聞】2月通脹超預期 央行左右為難

【新唐人2011年3月15日訊】大陸國家統計局公布了2月份的經濟數據。其中，消費者物價指數（CPI）同比上漲4.9％，高於市場預期。而衡量後續通脹壓力的生產者物價指數（PPI），更是創下2008年9月份以來的新高，飆升到7.2％。外界擔憂，大陸的通脹壓力短期難以減弱，央行越發處於兩難境地。

官方在3月11號公布的2月份經濟數據顯示，當局近幾個月來採取的遏制通脹措施，並沒有能夠扭轉通脹走勢。2月份消費者物價指數（CPI）同比上漲4.9%，漲幅與1月份持平，這也是連續兩個月CPI超出當局4%的調控目標。

而衡量後續通脹壓力的重要指標——生產者物價指數（PPI）同比上漲了7.2%，創下2008年9月以來的新高。 這兩項數據高於專家的預測，也令宣稱“2月份CPI有望回落”的官方感覺意外。但北京經濟學者郭玉閃在接受《自由亞洲電臺》採訪時指出，真實的通脹情況比官方發佈的數據要嚴峻得多。

郭玉閃：“通貨膨脹這個形勢現在還是特別嚴峻的，不能只看CPI。現在這個物價指數有重大缺陷，漏了很多重要指標；而且像房價，是沒有直接算進去的；反映通貨膨脹是不夠全面的。”

對於通脹上漲的原因，官方和專家們的看法則大不相同。國家統計局發言人盛來運表示，中國新年的影響促使食品價格上漲11%，是拉高2月份通脹率的主要原因。

中國經濟問題專家、泛美銀團副總裁草庵居士則認為，通脹的主要原因是中共當局發行貨幣過多，造成流動性過剩；另外，國際石油價格的上漲也起到一定推動作用。

美國《華爾街日報》援引HIS（Global Insight）的分析師桑頓（Alistair Thornton）的話說，目前中國通脹還沒有到達峰值，後續效應將在未來幾個月顯現。另外，因為國際油價的衝擊、大量的銀行貸款，CPI將會被繼續推高。

美國銀行美林證券（Bank of America Merrill Lynch）的經濟學家陸挺，則警告大陸當局“提高警惕”，3月份CPI同比漲幅很可能達到5.5%。

此前，中共當局宣稱，要把穩定物價作為宏觀調控的首要任務，希望在2011年將通脹率控制在4%以內。 美國“經濟展望”公司的首席全球經濟學家伯納德•鮑莫爾（Bernard Baumohl）對《美國之音》表示，中共有3個工具來遏制通脹，分別是：提高利率；提高銀行準備金率；和人民幣升值。當局曾多次提高利率和銀行準備金率，但收效甚微，剩下的辦法只能是加快人民幣升值。

他強調，目前中國經濟面臨的最大威脅，不是貨幣升值造成的出口下降，而是不斷上漲的通貨膨脹。儘管央行不情願，形勢將迫使央行加快人民幣升值。

新唐人記者李謙、柏妮綜合報導。

China』s Inflation Dilemma

China』s National Bureau of Statistics

recently released February』s economic data.

CPI rose 4.9% since last year, exceeding

expectations. A measure of inflation pressure,

producer price index (PPI) rose 7.2%,

a new high since October 2008.

There are concerns that the inflation pressure

in China cannot be mitigated in the short term,

and China』s Central Bank will be in a dilemma.

The February economic statistics released

on March 11 show that the government』s measures

in recent months did not curb the rate of inflation.

February』s CPI rose 4.9% since last year,

at the same rate as in January 2011.

The target rate of 4% was exceeded twice in a row.

The PPI, an important measure of the

inflation pressure, rose 7.2% since last year,

a new high since October 2008.

With 2 indices above economists』 expectations,

and after declaring that

“February』s CPI is expected to drop”,

the authorities are surprised, too.

In Beijing, economist Guo Yushan

told Radio Free Asia, the real inflation

was more severe than the official data.

Guo Yushan: “The current inflation is still severe.

We cannot focus only on the CPI.

There are fatal flaws in this index, which leave out

many critical factors, including house prices,

so it cannot comprehensively reflect the inflation.”

Economists and authorities cannot agree on the

reasons behind the current inflation.

National Bureau of Statistics spokesman,

Cheng Laiyun, said that food prices rose 11%

in February due to the New Year. It was

the main cause behind the high inflation that month.

Chinese economy expert and VP of Pan-America

Capital Inc., Caoan Jushi, believed the main reason

was the over-issuance of currency by the authorities,

which resulted in excess liquidity.

The increase of oil price was a factor, too.

Wall Street Journal quoted Alistair Thornton,

an analyst, at HIS Global Insight, saying that

China』s inflation hadn』t reached its top yet.

The after effects would occur in a few months.

In addition, high oil prices and the large quantity of

bank loans would push the CPI even higher.

Lu Ting, an economist at

Bank of America Merrill Lynch, warned

the Chinese authorities to “be alert”, because

the increase of CPI in March might reach 5.5%.

Previously, the CCP regime declared

price stabilization to be their main

macroeconomic control objective,

and hoped to curb the inflation rate within 4%.

Bernard Baumohl, chief global economist at

the Economic Outlook Group, told Voice of America,

that the CCP could control inflation

by raising interest rates, bank reserve ratio,

and RMB exchange rate.

The authorities tried the first 2 ways to no avail.

What remains is RMB appreciation.

He stressed that the current biggest threat

to China』s economy was not the reduced exports

due to RMB appreciation, but the soaring inflation.

Current circumstances would force

the Central Bank to appreciate

China's currency faster than it wants.

NTD reporters Li Qian and Bo Ni