【禁聞】一胎化惡果 老齡化和性別比例失調

【新唐人2011年4月30日訊】中共領導人胡錦濤最近表示，當局將繼續嚴格執行計劃生育政策，繼續維持低生育水準。而最新統計顯示，中國社會「老齡化」和「性別比例」失調等問題越來越嚴重。一些學者早先發表文章，呼籲當局在十二五規畫停止計劃生育，胡錦濤的這一講話，讓希望結束一胎化的許多人願望落空了。

胡錦濤在4月26號政治局會議上做出這番講話，證實當局會繼續推行獨生子女政策。然而三十年來的計劃生育政策的惡果已經浮現出來。

28號，國家統計局公布了第六次人口普查資料。結果顯示「老齡化」加劇，中國14歲以下人口總數比10年前下降了6.3%。而60歲以上老齡人口的總數則增加了3.3%，佔中國人口總數13.3%。

而國家統計局局長馬建堂對外國記者承認，出生人口「性別比例」失調狀況，實際上很嚴重。

楊支柱（原中國青年政治學院法律系副教授）：「為甚麼會出現『老齡化』？那不就是孩子少了嗎？年輕人比例少嘛。堅持現在的政策你不可能解決老齡化問題。只會使老齡化問題越來越嚴重啊。『性別比例』也是一樣的。為甚麼人們要性別選擇呢？因為他不能多生幾個來滿足自己的性別偏好。那過去就沒有關係嘛，我生三個女兒沒有關係，我接著生就是了。」

楊支柱表示，中共的人口政策是[斷子絕孫]的做法。他說，人類社會需要延續下去，養老負擔不能太重。如果少生孩子，孩子贍養老人的壓力變大，就難以有精力撫養後代。

國家計劃生育委員會專家委員，博士生導師梁中堂很早就反對人口控制

論。1985年他在國家批准下，選擇山西翼城縣試點他的二胎晚育理論。二十多年的實踐證明，放鬆計劃生育政策，人口數量反而低於全國水準，而且各項人口指標優於全國。

楊支柱認為，計劃生育已經成為意識形態和利益的結合體。一方面，計劃生育政策是由毛澤東等中共元老提出來，現任中共領導人胡錦濤墨守成規，不敢越雷池半步。另一方面，中共很多官員是依靠計劃生育這個政績爬上來的。因此極力維護計劃生育政策。

楊支柱：「不僅是他們（計生委）是搶劫集團，那包括很多大員們，省長書記們，政治局委員恐怕有不少是屬於這個既得利益集團的。為甚麼呢？因為我們過去有一個計劃生育一票否決制。誰要是計生指標實現不了的話，你就要被罷官。因為這些人過去尤其是上世紀八九十年代搞得很厲害的時候，他們都可以說是血債纍纍。」

楊支柱原來在中國青年政治學院擔任法律系副教授。去年由於生下第二胎女兒，而被單位開除。“超生副教授”的選擇令很多人大跌眼鏡。但他坦然表示，知識份子也有保護後代的本能。

那麼，「計劃生育政策」將給未來中國社會帶來什麼問題？

「性別失調」使得20%的男子找不到配偶，將可能催生跨國新娘和人口販賣現象。而「人口老齡化」將帶來年輕勞工的缺乏。今年沿海和內地的工廠已經出現「用工荒」。

另外，「人口老齡化」也意味著年輕人要負擔越來越多的老年人，而中國的社會福利保障體系仍然非常薄弱。

新唐人記者秦雪、王明宇採訪報導。

Bitter fruits of one-child policy

CCP』s (Chinese Communist Party) leader Hu Jintao

recently declared, that the one-child policy will

continue to be rigidly enforced, to keep

a low birth rate.

But according to recent statistics, the issues of

“aging” and “gender ratio” imbalance are worsening.

Some scholars had published articles to call

on the authorities to stop the one-child policy

in the Twelfth Five-Year Plan.

But Hu』s speech chilled many people』s hope.

Hu』s speech at a meeting of the Political Bureau on

April 26th, confirmed that the authorities will carry on

the one-child policy.

But after enforcing this policy for 30 years,

now its bitter fruits have risen.

13.3%。

On April 28th, the State Statistics Bureau released

the results of the 6th population census, which

showed an increasing “aging” problem.

Compared with the situation of 10 years ago,

the number of people aged below 14 dropped by 6.3%

while people aged above 60 increased by 3.3%

and accounts for 13.3% of the national total.

Ma Jiantang, Director of National Bureau

of Statistics, admitted the severe situation of

“gender ratio” imbalance of newborns,

when facing foreign journalists.

Yang Zhizhu (former associate professor at China

Youth University for Political Sciences) said: “Why is

there an 『aging』 issue?

That』s because of fewer newborns and teenagers.

By carrying on the current policy, the authorities can

never solve the issue of 『aging』 but only make it worse.

And same for the 『gender ratio』 issue.

Why do people choose genders of newborns?

That』s because their gender preferences

could not be satisfied by having more children.

Previously it is not a problem because people could

have more children if they had 3 daughters.”

Yang said that CCP』s policy is to make people

“sonless”.

The load to support the old shouldn』t be too heavy

in order to maintain human societies.

If people have fewer kids, their kids』 burden

to maintain them becomes heavier and

they will have less energy to raise their own children.

Liang Zhongtang, a member of the expert committee

of China's birth control, has long opposed the

birth control. Since 1985, approved by the state, he chose

Yicheng County in Shanxi Province, to test his

theory of two-children and late childbirth.

20 years』 practice has proved that by loosening

the birth control, the population becomes smaller

than national average while all demographic indices

are better than national averages.

Yang Zhizhu believes that birth control policy has

become a combination of ideology and interests.

On the one hand, the policy was put forward by

CCP』s patriarchs like Mao Zedong and CCP』s

current leader Hu Jintao dares not go against it.

On the other hand, many of CCP』s officials get

promoted by enforcing birth control policy actively,

therefore they strongly defend it.

Yang Zhizhu said: “The Birth Control Commission is

a robbering gang, and many governors,

party secretaries and members of the Political Bureau

also belong to this vested interest group. Why?

There was a one-vote-down system about birth control,

meaning an official was dismissed if he didn』t fulfill

the birth control program.

These people previously vigorously enforced

birth control policy especially in the 80s and 90s and

owe many bloody debts.”

Yang Zhizhu was an associate professor of law at

China Youth University for Political Sciences.

Last year, he was dismissed because he had

a second kid, a daughter.

His choice surprised many people.

But he said that intellectuals also have the instinct

of protecting their offsprings.

Then what problems will the “birth control policy”

bring to China』s society?

The “Gender ratio imbalance” has made 20% of the

total male population unable to find spouses and

could result in phenomena like foreign wives and

human trafficking.

The “aging” issue will result in the depletion of

young labors.

There is already a labor shortage in many coastal

and inland industries.

Also, the “aging” issue means young people are

supporting more old people, but

China』s social welfare is still very weak.

NTD reporters Qin Xue and Wang Mingyu