【禁聞】俄學者：中國或步蘇聯解體後塵

【新唐人2011年5月20日訊】一名俄國記者在北京的一個討論會上警告說，如果中共重犯蘇共錯誤，在貪污腐敗、鎮壓異議人士和民族政策等方面，步蘇聯後塵，中國也將解體。中國問題專家認為，中共滅亡不可逆轉，讓共產黨解體於無形是上策。

最近在北京剛結束一場題為「多民族社會中的民主機制」的討論會。參加會議的是俄羅斯和中國官方背景的學者。

著名記者和政論家舍甫琴柯等俄國學者在會上，批判了蘇聯民族政策。舍甫琴柯警告說，中國可能重復甦聯解體命運。

分別在俄國官方電視臺和廣播電臺，主持政論節目的舍甫琴柯：認為，兩個原因導致蘇聯解體。一是蘇聯共產黨的貪污腐敗；二是迫害異議人士，把批評聲音當成外國敵對勢力針對蘇聯的陰謀。

而中國在新疆和針對達賴喇嘛的做法，同樣是使用蘇聯式的處理手段。舍甫琴柯建議中國吸取蘇聯教訓，否則中國的統一不會永恆。

俄羅斯獨立政治評論人士帕德拉比涅克說，從俄羅斯角度看中國，中國很多方面更像蘇聯。他舉例說，蘇聯當年忽視民生，經濟建設犧牲民眾利益，中國今天的經濟增長，同樣建立在犧牲工人利益的基礎上。還有，在新疆和西藏少數民族政策上也像蘇聯，對待異議人士也與蘇聯完全相同。

人權律師、作家郭國汀認為，全世界九十個共產黨中有四十四個奪取了政權，如今只剩下中國、越南、朝鮮、古巴和老撾。根本的原因是由於共產主義的機制本身病入膏肓：共產黨國家普遍對異議人士、政治犯瘋狂鎮壓，秘密警察氾濫，破壞法治，用暴力製造恐怖，群體屠殺，搶劫教會，清洗異己等。中共政權在這些方面確實比其他共產黨國家利用的更極致，也必垮臺。

郭國汀：“現在唯一的中共撈稻草，為強撐它的政權的依據是甚麼呢，就是所謂的經濟發展，這也是為甚麼鄧小平提出“發展是硬道理”的這麽一個原因。因為如果中國經濟出現危機或一塌糊塗，中共政權肯定撐不下去。”

原北京大學教授、史學家蘇明感歎：所謂的改革三十年，老百姓是受害者，共黨官員們是最大的受益者。現在中國貧富的差距越來越大；政治上極度的腐敗；公民的自由和權利時常受到侵害；經濟成就靠造假；朝野之間矛盾尖銳、一觸即發。

蘇明：上海交通大學做的題為《二零一零年中國危機管理年度報告》中指出，在二零一零全年之內，平均每五天就發生一次大型的騷亂和暴動；平均每二分半鐘就發生一次群體的抗議事件。

蘇教授認為，這說明中國大陸隨時都可能暴發遍及全國的全民大起義、大革命。這種現像在歷史上也是重復的，都是發生在歷代王朝崩潰的前夕。

中國人權活動家唐柏橋稍早前表示：法輪功學員解體中共的做法，對全世界都有啟發作用。比如退黨運動、傳九評、神韻、網路反封鎖，還有講真相，達到了很高的境界，退黨運動實際上起到了改變靈魂深處的作用。

唐柏橋認為，在這沒有硝煙的戰爭中，起到了不戰而屈人之兵的作用，讓共產黨解體於無形。現在的共產黨四面楚歌、被動挨打，這和傳九評、促退黨、突破網路封鎖都有直接的關係。

新唐人記者宋風、肖顏綜合報導。

China to Follow SU

A Russian journalist warned at a forum in Beijing

that if the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)

repeated the Soviet Union』s (SU) mistakes

in corruption, repression of dissidents

and ethnic policies, China will disintegrate too.

China issue experts believe the extinction

of CCP is irreversible.

It is the best to disintegrate it with no trace.

A forum 『Democracy in Multi-Ethnic Society』

has concluded in Beijing. Participants were

Russian and Chinese scholars

with official backgrounds.

Shevchenko, a well-known journalist

and commentator, and other Russian scholars,

criticized ethnic policy of SU. Shevchenko warned

that China might repeat the SU』s fate.

Shevchenko hosted political talk shows

on Russian TV and radio. He said disintegration

of SU had two reasons. First was the corruption

of the Party, the second was the persecution

of dissidents, or “conspirators” against the SU.

China used SU-style methods on Xinjiang

and the Dalai Lama. Shevchenko suggested

to learn from SU』s disintegration,

or else the unification of China will not be eternal.

Parchilinishqa, an independent political

commentator in Russia, said China is more like SU.

For example, SU ignored the people's livelihood,

emphasizing the economic construction

at people』s expense. similar to what China does.

Policies on ethnic minorities in Xinjiang and Tibet,

and dissidents, are also the same as those of SU.

Guo Guoting, human rights lawyer and writer,

thinks that among the 90 communist parties

in the world, 44 ceased power. Now China,

Vietnam, Korea, Cuba and Laos remain.

The fundamental reason is communism itself,

which is ailing. Communists persecute dissidents,

political prisoners. 『Secret police』 are everywhere.

Communists destroy the rule of law, creating terror

with violence, genocide, looting churches,

“cleaning dissidents,” etc. The CCP went to extremes

in all these areas, and will fall undoubtedly.

Guo Guoting said: "Now only CCP holds power.

It is based on the so called economic development,

which is also why Deng Xiaoping proposed

"development is the last word." If the economy

fell in crisis or in a mess, the regime won』t survive."

Su Ming, former professor in Beijing University

and historian, said in the “3 Decade Reform”

the people are the victims, and CCP officials

are the biggest beneficiary. In China now the gap

between rich & poor is growing, political corruption

is at an all-time high, civil liberties and rights

are often violated, and economic success

is only by fraud. There is a contradiction

between ruling and opposition parties.

Su Ming: “A report entitled 『2010 Annual Report

of China Crisis Management』 in Shanghai,

Jiao Tong University said that in 2010,

on average, a major disturbance or riot

occurred every five days; a group protest

occurred every 2.5 minutes.”

Su said this indicates that it is possible at any time

now in China to break out a nationwide wave

of uprisings and revolution. Historically,

this happens in the eve of a dynasty』 collapse.

Tang Baiqiao, Chinese human rights activist said,

disintegration of CCP by Falun Gong practitioners,

is enlightening to the world. Quitting the CCP,

distributing the 『Nine Commentaries,』 Shen Yun,

breaking the Internet blockade,

has reached every corner of the globe.

Quitting the CCP purifies souls.

Tang Baiqiao said that this war with no smoke,

conquers the enemy with no fighting, leading

to CCP』s disintegration. Now the CCP is embattled,

vulnerable to attack. This is closely related

to the distribution of the 『Nine Commentaries』

the campaign to 『Quit the CCP』,

and the breaking of China』s Internet blockade.

NTD reporters Song Feng and Xiao Yan