【禁聞】國際貨幣基金組織 促人民幣升值

【新唐人2011年7月27日訊】「國際貨幣基金組織」年度報告認為，中共當局應促使人民幣升值，來對抗通貨膨脹、房地產泡沫及不斷減弱的貨幣控制能力，同樣對改善中國人民生活水準和削減與交易夥伴的衝突，也是必要的。專家指出，人民幣升值不會改變老百姓生活水準，老百姓受「通脹之苦」是由於壟斷造成的。

利用公布對中國經濟的年度評估報告的機會，「國際貨幣基金組織」敦促中共當局允許人民幣升值，以應對不斷惡化的通貨膨脹和房地產泡沫問題，並且實施規劃中金融改革，提振國內需求，改善中國百姓生活水準，和減少中國與交易夥伴的貿易衝突等相關問題。

對此，著名經濟學家程曉農表示，「國際貨幣基金組織」之所以提出這樣的建議，是因為他們不了解中國的情況，對中國的經濟不了解造成的。

程曉農：“進口價格下降，人民幣升值了，得好處的並不是老百姓，而是中國壟斷的國營企業。因為他們操縱價格。『國際貨幣基金組織』的錯誤在於，他誤把中國當作『市場經濟』，其實中國是『假市場經濟』。老百姓受到通貨膨脹的苦並不全是進口商品造成的，很大程度上是國民壟斷企業壟斷價格造成的

中國問題分析家伍凡先生則認為，中國經濟面臨的各種問題，說明以GDP為中心的生產模式，走到了死胡同。

伍凡：“還是以GDP為中心，還是以掠奪土地、掠奪資源、掠奪工人的工資，這樣的一個掠奪性的主導思想。經濟另外一個側面，國家的稅收，一個月的收入超過一萬億，稅收的收入超過GDP增長速度3倍，而工人的收入、農民、普通民眾的收入在GDP的總份量中在持續的下降，現在從12%下降到8%。”（聲音來源：希望之聲電臺）

「國際貨幣基金組織」還認為，人民幣被“大幅”低估。這個組織的一個磋商小組估計，人民幣按不同計算方法被低估的程度在3%到23%之間。他們認為，由於中國央行印製大量人民幣來購買美元，這讓人民幣兌美元的升值速度，無法達到在市場力量作用下本該具有的水準。

程曉農對此表示，由於中國貨幣儲備過多，熱錢進來過多，人民幣的升值壓力始終很大，中共當局允許小幅度升值，但是遠遠達不到國際社會認為應該達到的水準，所以離人民幣對美元的正常匯率還是差的很遠。

程曉農：中國現在本身就面臨嚴重的通貨膨脹，在這種情況下人民幣進一步升值的話，中國（共）政府面臨的壓力就更大。所以中國（共）政府根本不可能聽，他只是為了應付國際壓力做一些小幅度的升值，應付差事。

像上個世紀80年代，日本日元升值過大，經濟受到很大打擊。中共當局害怕出現類似情況，一直堅持貨幣政策改革屬於中國自己的主權問題。

「中國國家統計局」原總經濟師姚景源最近指出，人民幣大幅升值將擠壓出口企業利潤空間，抑製出口規模。他認為，如果人民幣大幅升值，出口會受到打擊，失業問題將立刻出現。

那麼中國人民幣匯率問題如何根本解決呢？

伍凡先生認為，中國只有把「出口經濟」轉變成「內需經濟」，也就是必須增加老百姓的收入，必須讓老百姓富裕起來，而不只是政府富裕。讓老百姓得到好處，才能使社會穩定，也不需要那麼多的「維穩費」，不需要那麼多的鎮壓老百姓的機構，把經費用來增加國內的「生產基金」，這樣才是社會的美好前景。

新唐人記者劉惠、宋風、薛莉採訪報導。

IMF Urges RMB to Appreciate

The International Monetary Fund』s (IMF) annual report urges

the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)

to facilitate the appreciation of the RMB,

tackle China』s runaway inflation,

deal with its real estate bubble,

diminish its currency control,

improve people』s lives,

and reduce conflicts between its trading partners.

Some experts say that the appreciation of the RMB

will not change people』s living standards,

since the “inflation” people are suffering from

is the result of state-controlled monopolies.

The IMF』s annual report on China』s economy urges the CCP

to appreciate the RMB, tackle China』s rising inflation,

deal with its real estate bubble crisis,

implement financial reforms to boost domestic demand,

improve the lives of its people,

and reduce ongoing conflicts between its trading partners.

Cheng Xiaonong, a well-known economist, said that

the IMF made these suggestions,

because they do not know the real situation in China

or understand its economy.

Cheng Xiaonong: If China』s import prices drop

and the RMB appreciates,

the ones who benefit will be China』s monopoly enterprises,

not the people, as those monopolies control prices.

The IMF』s conclusion is wrong because

they mistake China』s 『fake market economy』 for real.

The inflation people are suffering from

is not the result of imports, but of monopolies.”

Wu Fan, China issue analyst, believes that all the problems

that China』s economy is facing indicate that

the GDP-centered production mode has

reached an impasse.

Wu Fan: (The current production model) is GDP-centered

and is based on the idea of plundering

land, resources, and workers』 wages.

The state revenue,

another aspect of the economy,

is over RMB 1,000 billion per month,

which is three times of the GDP growth.

However, the proportion of the ordinary people

in the total GDP has decreased from 12 % to 8 %.”

The IMF also believes that the RMB is greatly undervalued.

A consulting group from the IMF estimates that according to

different calculations, the RMB is undervalued by 3% to 23%.

They believe that since the People's Bank of China

mass prints RMB bills to buy USD,

the appreciation rate of the RMB cannot reach the level expected

under the current market forces.

Cheng said that

since China has too much currency reserve and “hot money,”

the pressure on the RMB』s appreciation is considerable.

The CCP allows for a slight appreciation,

which is far below international expectations,

so the RMB has a long way to go before

it reaches a normal exchange rate with the USD.

Cheng Xiaonong said: “China is facing a severe inflation.

Thus, if the RMB appreciates further,

the CCP will be facing even more pressure.

Therefore, it is not possible for the CCP to go along with

the international community』s wishes and advice.

However, facing international pressure,

the CCP has appreciated the RMB in token amounts.

Similar to the over appreciation of Japanese yen in the 1980s,

which greatly affected Japan』s economy,

the CCP is afraid that a similar situation would

happen in China if the Yuan appreciated.

Therefore, the CCP insists that currency reform is

a sovereign right issue.

Yao Jingyuan, ex-chief economist of State Statistics Bureau,

recently said that a large RMB appreciation will cut

export enterprises』 profit, thus lowering export volume.

He believes that a large RMB appreciation will hurt exports,

immediately resulting in widespread unemployment.

So how can the RMB exchange rate problem be solved?

Wu Fan believes that China should turn its export economy

into a domestic economy, which will increase people』s income

and make people rich rather than making the government rich.

Only by benefiting the people, can a society be stabilized.

Then there is no need of so much “stability maintenance fee”

or so many government agencies to suppress people.

Simply use the vast amounts of money that the CCP now holds

to produce goods in China, for the Chinese people,

which will in turn provide create a better future for the Chinese.

NTD reporters Liu Hui, Song Feng and Xue Li