【新唐人2011年2月21日訊】中共當局17號發佈報告說，2010年境外流入的資金數量為355億美元。不過，資料顯示，今年一季度熱錢流入的規模已超過去年全年。財經專家指出，中共一方面為吸引外資投資中國，製造熱錢進入中國的吸引力；但一方面熱錢帶來的通貨膨脹卻無力抑制，最終受害最深的只是中國底層的百姓。
根據外匯管理局17號發佈的《2010年中國跨境資金流動監測報告》，2010年國際熱錢淨流入中國的規模為355億美元，比過去10年年平均水平高出42%。
可是，外匯管理局的數據備受質疑。去年中，《上海證券報》估計，2010年第一季熱錢合計超過700億美元，已經是外匯管理局公布的2010年全年熱錢數目的一倍。
與此同時，中國唯一獲得官方委託「調查地下錢莊活動」的學者、廣東省社會科學綜合開發研究中心主任黎友煥說：「去年三月開始，熱錢加速流入中國。到了年底，黎友煥通過對全國100個地下錢莊的監測發現，單單11月前半個月，短短15天內，通過地下錢莊流入國內的熱錢，已經比10月整個月暴增30%。根據估計，11月整個月的熱錢可能比10月激增100%。」
有民間機構的分析師指出，官方的熱錢數據嚴重被低估。
「國泰君安宏觀」分析師呂春傑透露，公司的統計是：去年流入中國大陸的熱錢應該遠不止官方公布的355億美元，而是高達近2000億美元。
上海財經大學金融學教授丁劍平指出，海外熱錢流入中國並不值得大驚小怪，可怕的是有朝一日獲利抽逃。
210期《新紀元》雜誌文章《放空中國對沖基金在行動》報導，許多對沖基金認爲，中國這個全球最大的泡沫經濟正在奔向爆破並開始行動。
文章表示，大約半年前，基金大鱷亨德裡（Hugh Hendry）與美國著名空頭大師查諾斯（James S. Chanos）就對中國的經濟前景表示憂慮，打賭中國經濟面臨驚人衰退。
現今，越來越多的對沖基金，包括國際貨幣基金會（IMF）、梅菲爾（Mayfair）對沖基金、隆巴德街研究所（Lombard Street Research）、科裡連顧問公司（Corriente Advisors）等，都認為中國經濟的泡沬已臨界崩潰邊緣，有些已經做出行動放空中國。
新唐人《獨立評論》節目去年年末評論指出，中共雖然嚴格管制外幣匯兌，但是國際熱錢還是通過各種渠道如地下錢莊、假貿易、在國內設立公司等渠道流入中國。
草庵居士：「熱錢有百分之60到65進入商品市場，商品市場就是指股市和房地產，而有百分之30是真正在股市裡頭，其他的都是在商品當中，所以中國商品暴漲是很正常的，通貨膨脹是很正常的。」
主持人伍凡指出，熱錢湧入中國，大陸政府極為頭痛。擔心股市暴跌，需要熱錢來支撐中國股市；人民幣升值吸引“熱錢”卻加速通脹；“加息”解決不了通脹問題，反而提高了“熱錢”在國內存款的收益率。
伍凡：「最受損害的----中國老百姓，為甚麼？物價上漲、房價上漲，『糖太宗、豆你玩』這些東西上漲以後降不下來，老百姓唯一的工資不漲，老百姓承擔所有的熱錢進來造成的通貨膨脹，所有的結果。」
另一名主持人草庵居士也表示，中共總是自打耳光，一方面製造熱錢進入中國的機會和吸引力，而又在另一方面說：熱錢影響社會和諧穩定。
新唐人記者吳惟、李璐綜合報導。
Hot Money is Not Scary but Why the CCP Underestimates it?
A report released on Feb. 17 by the CCP indicated,
foreign capital inflow in 2010 was US$35.5 billion.
Statistics show, however, hot money in the 1st quarter
this year is already greater than the total in 2010.
Financial experts say, on one hand, the CCP regime
endeavored to attract foreign hot money to China, but
on the other hand, it is unable to suppress the inflation
caused by the hot money.
Eventually, the victims will be ordinary Chinese folks.
According to a 2010 report of capital flows in China
by the State Admin. of Foreign Exchange (SAFE),
the net international hot money to China in 2010
was US$35.5 billion
It was 42% higher than the average of past 10 years.
The data from SAFE were widely questioned.
In mid 2010, Shanghai Securities News estimated that
the hot money in the 1st quarter already surpassed
US$70 billion, doubling the total in 2010 by SAFE.
Li Youhuan, the only scholar officially entrusted
to investigate underground banking activities in China,
said that from March 2010, hot money entering China
more quickly. By monitoring 100 underground banks,
he found in the 1st half of Nov., hot money coming to
China through underground banks increased 30%
over Oct. It was estimated that hot money in Nov. 2010
could have been 100% more than that in Oct.
Analysts from private sectors believe that the official
hot money figure is seriously underestimated.
Lu Chunjie, an analyst from Guotai Junan Macro Co.
said, last year』s hot money entering China exceeded
the official figure of US$35.5 billion.
It was as high as US$200 billion.
Ding Jianping, prof. at Shanghai Univ. of Finance,
Said, overseas money inflow is not scary.
The really scary part is when the money comes
out of China after it has made profits.
A report “Venting China Hedge Fund in Action” on
issue No. 210 of the New Epoch Weekly said, many
hedge funds believe that China, the biggest global
bubble economy, is heading for explosion now.
The article said, about 6 months ago, funds masters
Hugh Hendry and James S Chanos expressed their
worries about the outlook of Chinese economy and
bet that China was facing a stern recession.
Today, more and more hedge funds, including IMF,
Mayfair Hedge Fund, Lombard Street Research, and
Corriente Advisors, believe that Chinese economy is
at the verge of collapse and some of them have already
taken actions to short sell their stocks in China.
NTD TV』s Independent Commentary program said
at the end of 2010, despite the strict control of foreign
exchanges in China, international hot money still
entered china via underground banks, fake trading,
and setting up companies in China.
Caoyan Jushi, a famous economist: 60% to 65% of
the hot money entered commodity and real estate
markets. Only 30% is in stock market. All the rest
are in goods market. So, the price of the goods
in China is bound to soar. So is inflation.
Program host Wu Fan said, active inflow of hot money
into China is a big headache to Chinese government.
They worry about stock market crush, so they need
hot money to support China』s stock market.
However, appreciation of RMB attracts hot money
but also escalates inflation at the same time.
Interest hike cannot solve the inflation problem.
Instead, it increased the deposit return for the hot money.
Wu Fan: Ordinary people in China are hit the most.
Why? Once the prices of goods and housing soar,
it is difficult for them to come down.
With no increase on salary, ordinary people have to
bear the consequences of inflation caused by hot money.
Caoyan Jushi also said, the CCP is always slapping
its own face. On one hand, it creates opportunities
to attract hot money into China, while on the other
hand, it says hot money undermines social stability.
NTD reporters Wu Wei and Li Lu
