【新唐人2011年4月13日訊】近幾個月來，在北非和中東幾個專制獨裁國家，相繼爆發政治風暴，使得在當地投資的國外企業蒙受重大損失。同樣是專制政權的中國，受到利比亞和埃及革命浪潮影響，政治風險也跟著升高，中國經濟社會學者提醒在中國投資的外國商家，要有應對這類風險發生的準備。
在中國投資有甚麼風險？美國《華爾街日報》日前發表一篇《應對中國崩潰的商家指南》，點出了在中國投資可能引爆的風險。
文章認為，由於專制政權的先天性不穩定，在中國做生意的外國商家要有準備，一旦中國發生類似中東和北非變故時。
那麼，如何面對中國投資環境的政治風險？目前旅居美國的中國經濟社會學者何清漣認為，對一個獨裁國家的政治風險如果考慮不周，經濟損失將十分慘重。
何清漣：「外商在中國考慮投資應該這樣考慮。第一不要做長線投資。比如現在財經市場遙遙無期以後才能盈利。那麼我看這種投資就免了。」
中國自己投資利比亞就是一個活生生的例子。據了解，中國在利比亞承包的大型項目共有50個，涉及的合同金額是188億美元。利比亞「撒哈拉銀行」在3月25號已向撤出利比亞的「葛洲壩集團」、「中國水利水電建設」，以及「宏福建工」等中國公司，發出了“預付款保函索賠函”，對每家企業的索賠額度都超過了數億美元。
在《華爾街日報》11號發表的《三大問題可能拖纍中國經濟增長》文章中，提到的三大問題， 一是房地產泡沫破裂，二是失衡的經濟結構調整，第三個就是政治問題。
文章認為，政治動盪的爆發通常是出乎人們意料的。對高物價的不滿在世界各地曾引發過政治動盪。目前中國通貨膨脹率為5%，同比上升了約一倍。
文章說，中共領導層正在壓制受到中東示威活動影響的民主活動人士，儘管中國的街頭抗議活動很少，甚至可以說是沒有。
中共總理溫家寶在北京「兩會」期間，曾經對外國記者說，任何把中國同西亞、北非發生政治動盪的國家相類比都是不正確的。何清漣認為，兩者確實不同，不同的地方是中東國家是開明專制，而中國是黑暗專制，政府控制一切領域包括宗教。
何清漣：「他（溫家寶）認為中國嚴控做得好所以不會發生。我認為這正好是中國專制非常黑暗的地方。所以，民主的因素各種有關推動社會進步的因素不容易在中國社會發芽成長。」
在網絡上還有一篇署名陸蕊的文章，作者也針對投資中國的政治風險進行了分析。文章說，來中國投資，你會遭遇到在其他的國家少有的“官險”。因為在中國做生意，搞實體，靠的是官員關係網。一旦投資錯誤，將會血本無歸。
而另外一個是「民險」。 文章分析，中國的基尼係數目前已經超過0.4這個警戒線，達到了0.5，表明財富過度集中於少數人。並且，中國大量出現個體上訪、集體上訪，請願、靜坐、自焚、自殘、下跪等等，併發展到武力解決、暴力反抗。
文章指出，雖然「官」、「民」力量的懸殊是官方得以「化解」的原因，而事件的背後卻蘊藏著統治者的政權危機。
筆者最後忠告，如果您對中國的「官險」和「民險」不了解，也沒有應對措施的話，請暫且不要去中國投資。
新唐人記者李庭、蕭宇綜合報導。
No Long-Term Investments in China
Due to the political storms in authoritarian countries
in North Africa and the Middle East,
foreign companies with local investments
in these countries suffered great losses.
China also has an authoritarian regime.
Impacted by the revolutions in Libya and Egypt,
the political risk in China also increased.
Scholars of Chinese economy and society remind
to firms with Chinese investments to be prepared.
What are the risks of investing in China?
Wall Street Journal (WSJ) recently published an
article 『A Businessman』s Guide to China』s Collapse,』
pointing out that investments in China may be risky.
It said, due to the authoritarian regime』s instability,
foreign businesses operating in China must prepare
for the occurrence of similar political events in China.
U.S.-based societal scholar, He Qinglian said,
without consideration of political risks
in a dictatorship, it can lead to great economic losses.
He: “Foreign firms shouldn』t have long-term
investments in China. For example, if the gains are
only in the future, I suggest businesses to not invest.”
China's investments in Libya are a good example.
China signed 50 large-scale contracts in Libya,
amounting to USD18.8 billon. On March 25,
Libya』s Sahara Bank maliciously claimed
compensation from Chinese companies
that withdrew from Libya, demanding
hundreds of millions dollars per company.
On April 11, WSJ published an article about 3 issues
that might drag down China』s economic growth,
including the real estate bubble bursting,
the imbalance of economic restructuring
and the political problem.
The article said political turmoil is often unexpected,
and caused by dissatisfaction with high prices.
China's inflation rate is 5%, double from a year ago.
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) suppresses
democratic activists in China, although there
have been very few protests, the article continues.
During the CCP』s 『two meetings』 in Beijing,
Premier Wen Jiabao told foreign journalists that it is
incorrect to compare China with the Middle East.
He Qinglian believes that the two are indeed different.
In the Middle East, there is enlightened despotism.
In China, it is the darkest tyranny.
The CCP controls all areas, including religions.
He: "He (Wen) believes revolutions won』t happen
due to CCP』s strict control. I think it is just one
dark aspect of authoritarian China. All democratic
elements that promote social progress
are not easy to grow in Chinese society.”
An online article by Lu Rui analyzed China』s
political risk. The article said, foreign firms investing
in China encounter rare “bureaucratic risks,”
because doing business relies on networking
with officials, an investment mistake will cost you all.
http://hi.baidu.com/scanball/blog/item/a90a37093dd5e0296b60fbbd.html
The other aspect is the "civilian risk." The article
analyzes China's Gini Coefficient, which passed
the warning level of 0.4, reaching 0.5, indicating that
the wealth is concentrated in the hands of a minority.
Also, in China, there are a lot of petitions, sit-ins,
self-immolations, self-mutilation,
and they are not treated with military suppression.
Although the imbalance of power between the CCP
and the people leads to “harmonization,” behind
these incidents is the ruling class』 power crisis.
The author advised that those who don』t understand
China's "bureaucratic risk" or "civilian risk," and are
not prepared for them, should not invest there.
NTD reporters Li Ting and Xiao Yu
