【禁聞】江澤民亮衰老呆相 學者指影響漸衰

【新唐人2011年10月11日訊】7月初傳出死訊的前中共總書記江澤民，10月9號高調現身北京「紀念辛亥革命100週年大會」。這是他2009年11月出席錢學森的喪禮後，首次出席官方活動。將近兩年沒有在媒體上公開露過面的江澤民，看起來老朽衰弱。海內外學者指出，江硬撐病體亮相，對十八大實質影響不大。

北京人民大會堂9號舉行紀念辛亥百年大會，現任和前任領導人包括江澤民、李鵬、李瑞環、曾慶紅、尉健行、宋平、羅幹等人出席，但最近剛出新書的前總理朱鎔基沒有露面。

江澤民由工作人員攙扶入場，雖然強撐笑容，但掩飾不住衰老不堪，他步履蹣跚逐漸與走在前頭的胡錦濤拉開了距離。

入座時江有些吃力，需要一手扶著胡錦濤的椅背，才能坐下。在胡錦濤演講時，江的氣力顯得有些衰弱，讓現場媒體議論紛紛，法新社報導，大會期間江曾打瞌睡。

《中國事務》網站主編伍凡：「他健康狀況看來是很不樂觀、不好，發呆，我看他眼神是癡呆的，老年人嘛，都85歲了，又是生了幾場大病，這種狀況也不奇怪了。他硬要抱病出場，他的目地就是亮相，他亮亮相效果就各人看各人心裡有數了。」

會議結束當大部份人離座時，江依然坐著，胡錦濤主動搭住江的手臂，想扶他起來，但隨即有工作人員上前攙扶江站起來，江明顯感到疲憊，外界認為江的健康的確堪憂。

美國哥倫比亞大學政治學博士王軍濤：「非常濃的、非常重的化妝，但是還是很難掩飾他的整個臉已經變形了，而且皺紋相當可怕。他之所以在這樣的健康狀況、這樣的形象下，他還要亮相，可能主要還是因為隨著十八大臨近，黨內的權力鬥爭趨於激化，他可能擔心自己的陣營穩不住了，可能要崩塌。」

今年「七一」和「十一」，江澤民缺席了中共建黨90週年和建政62週年慶典。7月初，香港亞視和日本媒體先後報導江病重死亡，事後道歉誤報。新華社當時只發了一個簡短的英文闢謠，江也沒有露面或發佈近照。

與此同時，遠華走私案主犯賴昌星被引渡回國，並相繼發生了溫州動車相撞慘劇、大連PX項目潰堤、上海地鐵追尾等一系列事件，上海幫勢力遭到重挫。

香港《前哨》雜誌主編劉達文：「上陣子傳說他死了，上海幫那些人就很震驚，所以團派的人就磨拳擦掌準備上臺。他現在亮相，那肯定是有一種提升上海幫的士氣那種作用。」

英國BBC引述香港中文大學兼任教授林和立的話說，江澤民現身對十八大人事佈局可能造成影響。

不過，美國喬治梅森大學教授章天亮對江澤民「腐屍」形象，是否能提升上海幫士氣表示質疑，他以十七大前夕，英國《泰晤士報》報導江派副總理黃菊病死的消息為例，當時國務院新聞發言人出面闢謠，但不到一個月，新華社就公布了黃菊的死訊。

章天亮：「我想這幾個月來，江澤民肯定是處在一種根本就沒辦法見人的狀態。既使這次出來，他其實這種狀態，大家也看到了，已經是病骨支離了，感覺是強撐一口氣。所以說這次江澤民強行出來，應該跟當時黃菊出來差不多，就是給上海幫打氣。但是，我覺得他實際上已經來日無多了。」

台灣淡江大學中國大陸研究所所長張五嶽表示，江澤民的現身，像徵意義大於實質意義，他不認為會對十八大人事佈局有實際影響。

前胡耀邦智囊阮銘：「江澤民已經這麼老了，病的這樣了，他有甚麼影響力，十八大該誰去就誰上去。江澤民這個人本來在中國就沒有甚麼人喜歡他，他現在那麼老了、病成這樣了，誰聽他的呀。」

趙紫陽的老部下、《炎黃春秋》社長杜導正也認為，這次江澤民、宋平、李鵬露面會有一點小小影響，都不會太大。按照中共現行體制，江澤民對中央權力運作不會有很大的實質影響。

新唐人記者周玉林、李元翰、李月採訪報導。

Jiang Zemin』s Old and Weak Appearance

Former Chinese Communist Party (CCP) General Secretary

Jiang Zemin, who was rumored to have died in early July,

made a high-profile appearance in Beijing at the assembly

of the 100th Anniversary of the Xihai Revolution.

This is his first attendance at official activities since

the funeral of Qian Xuesen in November 2009.

Jiang Zemin, who has not appeared in public

for nearly two years, looked old and weak.

Scholars inside and outside China point out

that Jiang struggled to appear in public,

and will have little impact on

the 18th National Congress of the CCP.

On October 9, the assembly to commemorate the

100th Anniversary of the Xinhai Revolution

was held in the Great Hall in Beijing.

Current and former CCP leaders, including Jiang Zemin,

Li Peng, Li Ruihuan, Zeng Qinghong, Yu Jianqing,

Song Ping and Luo Gan attended the event. Former Premier

Zhu Rongji, who recently published a book, did not appear.

Jiang entered the event with the physical support of others.

Although he tried to smile, he could not conceal his weakness.

His face was described as looking pale and swollen,

his eyes were dull and lacking the ability to focus.

His gestures were much slower than before, and he faltered

and gradually lagged behind Hu Jintao, who was in front.

It took Jiang some efforts to sit down.

One of his hands leaned on the back of Hu Jintao's chair.

When Hu gave a speech, Jiang looked weak,

causing discussions among media staff.

AFP reported that Jiang was asleep during the assembly.

Wu Fan (Editor-in-chief, China Affairs): “His health

condition is very bad. He looks like he』s in a constant daze.

He is 85-years-old and has gone through several major

illnesses. It is quite normal he looks like this.

He should not appear in public in such a condition.

His purpose is to show himself. Everyone has their

own interpretation of the result of this appearance.”

When the assembly concluded and most left their seats,

Jiang was still sitting.

Hu Jintao reached out to him and wanted to help him.

Staff members came up and helped Jiang stand up.

Jiang looked tired. People think his condition is indeed bad.

Wang Juntao (Ph.D in Political Science, Colombia Univ):

"He had very strong and heavy make-up,

but it still could not cover up his deformed face.

The wrinkles looked quite terrible.

He showed up in such a state because he worries his faction

cannot hold their positions and may even collapse

with the upcoming 18th CCP Congress,

and the intensifying power struggles.”

Jiang Zemin did not appear during CCP』s 90th anniversary

on July 1 and its 62nd anniversary of governing China

on October 1. In early July, Hong Kong and Japanese media

reported that Jiang died of illness,

and later on apologized for the false news.

Xinhua News Agency only issued a brief statement

to deny the rumor in English. Jiang did not show up,

nor were any recent photos published.

Meanwhile, Yuanhua smuggling culprit, Lai Changxing,

was extradited to China.

Together with the multiple high speed train collisions

in Wenzhou, the PX dike collapse in Dailian,

the collision of the Shanghai Metro trains, and the situation

with the Shanghai Gang, provided a series of setbacks.

Liu Dawen (Editor-in-chief, HK Qiangshao magazine):

“Not long ago it was said that he died.

The Shanghai gang was discouraged and the Tuan Pai

was preparing to step up.

His appearance is to motivate the Shanghai gang.”

BBC quoted Willy Lam, professor at the Chinese University

of Hong Kong: “Jiang Zemin』s appearance

might influence the layout of the 18th CCP congress.”

However, Professor Zhang Tianliang of George Mason

University questioned whether Jiang Zemin's "corpse" image

would help the morale of the Shanghai gang.

He took Huang Ju』s death as an example.

Before the 17th CCP Congress, the British Times reported

Vice Premier Huang Ju』s death,

which was denied by China』s State Council spokesman.

In less than a month, Xinhua announced his death.

Zhang Tianlian: “In the past several months, Jiang must have

been in a state which could not be shown up in public.

Even if he showed up this time, people can see his condition.

He is dying. So his appearance is similar

to that of Huang Ju. He intends to improve the morale of the

Shanghai gang. I do not think he will live many more days.”

President of Mainland China Studies, of Taiwan』s

Tamkang University, Zhang Wuyue,

expressed that Jiang Zemin』s appearance

is more symbolic than substantive.

He believes that it would not impact the layout

of the 18th CCP Congress.

Ruan Ming (Think tank of Hu Yaobang): “Jiang Zemin is old

and sick. What kind of impact does he have?

Whoever will be promoted during the 18th National Congress

will not be impacted by him.

Not many people in China like Jiang Zemin, and now

with him being old and sick, who will listen to him?”

Du Daozheng, subordinate of former CCP General Secretary

Zhao Ziyang, and President of Yanhuang Chunqio magazine,

also thinks the appearance of Jiang Zemin, Song Ping,

and Li Peng will have a little influence, but not too much.

According to CCP』s current system, Jiang Zemin won』t have

much impact to the operations of CCP』s central government.

NTD reporters Zhou Yulin, Li Yuanhan and Li Yue