【新唐人2011年3月24日訊】早在2004年，發改委就提出要開發怒江，因為遭到各方的強烈反對，而暫時擱置。今年初，中共能源局官員放出口風，要開發怒江，這引起多位專家的反對。甚麼原因呢？讓我們一起去看看。
怒江是中國西南部唯一還沒有興建水壩、保存完好的原始生態流域，和金沙江、瀾滄江一起從青藏高原流入滇西北橫斷山脈縱谷之中，形成著名的世界自然遺產——三江並行的景觀。
能源局表示將要開發怒江，這消息讓兩位已經退休10多年的老科學家坐不住了。年初，77歲的徐道一和78歲的孫文鵬專程去怒江地區實地考察。他們從學術角度指出，從怒江獨特複雜的地質環境，和當地地質災害的嚴重性來看，怒江上建壩的地質風險非常大。
四川地礦局總工程師範曉接受新唐人採訪表示：“實際上怒江就是歐亞板塊和印度洋板塊很重要的過渡的地方。就像現在日本大地震它發生在歐亞板塊和太平洋板塊結合的部位，那麼怒江這個地方實際上也是很重要的大的板塊結合帶的附近。”
據研究發現，在怒江流域的很多橫剖面上，寬度在100米以上的大斷裂有2∼3條，還有30多個小破裂面，整個河流的構造上，破碎帶的寬度在400∼1000米。孫文鵬認為，如果在怒江上建水電站，攔江大壩必然要橫跨斷裂破碎帶。他形容這“相當於在剪刀口上建大壩。”
雖然他們的觀點贏得了不少專家的贊同，但是，對於建水電站的“主上派”專家卻說，“沿江仍能找到若干建設條件好的河段建壩”、“壩質採取安坡穩定加固，是非常有效的。”範曉認為：不能只從建壩地段和壩體牢固的角度來分析，還要看到怒江流域正處於地震活躍期。
範曉：“它屬於滇西地震帶，歷史上多次發生7級以上的地震，前不久的盈江地震實際上就是（發生）在大盈江斷裂，都是表明整個滇西地區，包括怒江斷裂在內，都是地震非常活躍的一個區域。”
徐道一和孫文鵬分析也認為，若在這建壩，一旦發生地震，很可能上游一個大壩潰壩後引起多個大壩的連環潰壩，數十億立方米的泥石流，沿著又陡又直而且狹窄的怒江河谷下來，會把下游地區徹底毀滅。
範曉認為，即便是在工程上能做到大壩牢固，但只要發生地質災害，還是能對周圍的環境造成強烈的破壞。
範曉：“他沒考慮整個這個區域如果發生大的地震，因為它高山峽谷地區，即使大壩不破壞，因為大的地震可以誘發大陸的地震災害，包括山崩、滑坡、泥石流，也會對區域造成一個重大的損害。”
據了解，即便不考慮這一切地質災害，現代科學已經認識到，水庫本庫也能夠誘發庫區附近岸坡的大面積滑坡，滑坡又可能造成很高的庫區湧浪，衝擊和威脅大壩的安全。
新唐人記者趙心知、朱娣採訪報導。
Nu River, New Dams Not Safe
As early as 2004, due to strong opposition,
a proposal to develop the Nu River was delayed.
In early 2011, Chinese energy officials started to
mention development of the Nu River again,
but many experts objected. What are the reasons?
The Nu River is the only river in southwest China
with no dams, remaining a pristine ecological basin.
Together with Jinsha River and Lancang River,
the Nu River flows into Northwest Rift Valley,
from Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, thus creating
the world famous Three Parallel River landscape.
China』s Energy Bureau said it will develop Nu River,
and two retired scientists became restless.
In early 2011, Xu Daoyi, 77, and Sun Wenpeng, 78,
made a trip to conduct a survey on the Nu River area.
They pointed out that it is a great risk to build a dam
from an academic point of view, and considering all
complex geological environment and potential risks.
Chief Engineer of Sichuan Geology and Mineral』s
Bureau, Fan Xiao, told NTD, "The Nu River
is a very important transitional area between
the Eurasian and Indian Ocean plate,
just like the site of Japan』s recent earthquake,
between the Eurasian and Pacific Ocean plate.
Geologically, Nu River is near such a critical area.”
Research of the cross sections of Nu River Valley
found that there are 2-3 100 meter-wide breakages,
and over 30 smaller breakages. The section
with breakages runs about 400-1000m. It would be
very dangerous to construct a hydropower station
on the Nu River, says Sun Wenpeng.
Building a dam across the fractured zone is like
“building a dam across scissors』 blades”.
Although many experts agreed with them,
those in favor of building the dam said,
“There are many good dams along the river”,
“If the slope is stabilized, it should be effective.”
Fan Xiao said, the dam site and stability alone
aren't enough. The Nu River is in its seismic active
period, which should be taken into consideration.
Fan: “This is western Yunnan』s earthquake zone.
Many earthquakes of magnitude 7+ took place here.
Not long ago, an earthquake occurred due to
the Da-Ying River. This indicates that the entire
western Yunnan, including Nu River fracture,
is in a very active quake zone.”
Xu Daoyi and Sun Wenpeng also believed that
if an earthquake occurs, a collapsed upstream dam
could cause the other downstream dams to collapse.
Billions of cubic meters of debris, along the straight,
steep and narrow river would destroy the entire valley.
Fan believes that even if one builds a stable dam,
in case of a geological disaster, the surrounding
environment would be damaged immensely.
Fan: “They didn』t consider what would happen
to the area if a major earthquake should occur.
Due to high mountains and the gorges in the region,
even if the dam stands solidly, a huge earthquake
could induce disasters like landslides and mudslides.”
Even without considering all geological hazards,
modern science has realized that the reservoir itself
could also induce large-scale landslides in the area.
In turn, they could result in a high reservoir surge
that would threaten and impact the dam』s safety.
NTD reporters Zhao Xinzhi and Zhu Di
