【禁聞】經濟政策難定調 十八大前各自盤算

【新唐人2011年12月12日訊】一年一度的中共中央「經濟工作會議」，一向被認為是為來年宏觀經濟政策定調的關鍵會議，以往每年都在11月底開，今年卻定在12月12號，罕見的往後推遲了十幾天。按慣例，在「經濟工作會議」前召開的「定調會」，也延遲到12月9號。海外媒體指出，會議延遲，其實是中共高層內部對經濟調控意見不一，反應出明年十八大中共高層各權力方的政治角鬥。

大陸「國家統計局」8號公布：中國11月份的通脹率和工業產能雙雙下降。 9號，「中共政治局」召開「定調會」聲稱，明年將加強經濟調控，在保持經濟增長的同時繼續控制通脹。

「美國賓州費城爵碩大學」商學院教授謝田分析，中共政權實際上正處於經濟崩潰，房市和股市也處於崩潰邊緣，整個資金煉和金融業將會出現危機，這次「經濟工作會議」就是在這樣大的一個背景之下，拋出來的一個自保之路。

謝田:「為何要控制通貨膨脹呢?因為中國的通脹已經失控，15%以上的通貨膨脹使得老百姓民怨沸騰，已經直接導致社會不穩，他們控制通貨膨脹是為了安撫民心，保障社會穩定和政權穩定。」

對於這次經濟會議中提出的持續「房地產調控政策」，謝田認為這根本解決不了實際問題。

謝田:「為何沒有完全奏效的原因是，他在壓低房價，抑制房價的時候，觸動了地方權貴階層的利益，房價因為資本市場投資資金斷煉出現價格下跌時，並沒有促進房市交易量的增加。當房價下降時，老百姓只會更擔心，因為不知房價會降多少?如果房價繼續下降的話，老百姓們也看到了自己房子的頭款、首付被吞沒了的現實。中國老百姓慢慢已經看透了房地產泡沫背後真正的黑手，就是權貴階層。」

2007年底以來，中國宏觀經濟政策已有六次方向性調整，卻依舊難以阻止中國經濟走向崩潰的勢頭。中共商務部長11月28號承認：「現在可以確定的是，中國明年經濟將面臨下滑風險。」　

今年中共中央經濟工作「定調會」與正式會議一度推遲，也反映出中共高層內部對中國經濟束手無策，對來年的經濟調控政策難有定調。

有評論文章認為，中共高層在明年的經濟調控政策上的分歧，與十八大中共高層換屆有關，各自有各自的利益盤算。

溫家寶明年就要交權，當然不希望在自己的任上再桶甚麼簍子。所以在經濟政策上是求穩的，既不會像08年那樣，大張旗鼓的撒錢，也不會完全收緊錢袋，不管中小企業死活。

而明年十八大常委熱門人選之一的王岐山，主張推出10萬億刺激經濟。很明顯，王岐山希望用一個上升態勢中的經濟形式，來迎接明年的十八大，撒錢則是最迅速有效提振經濟的辦法。

另外，李克強接任溫家寶擔任總理一職已沒有太大爭議，因此不希望接到自己手上的是個爛攤子。李克強希望現階段仍然不要放鬆經濟政策，通過調控使得經濟結構有所調整。預計，對房地產的控制，在李克強手中，將成為一個長遠的政策。

不過，海外評論認為，中共政府2012年的經濟政策，對解決中國當前的經濟危機作用不大，「美國環球通視公司」(Global Insight)中國經濟學家桑頓(Alistair Thornton)說，中國若要徹底戰勝通脹，還為時過早。

新唐人記者林莉、許旻、蕭宇採訪報導。

China’s Economic Policy a Challenge

The Economic Working Conference of the Central Committee

of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is regarded as the key macroeconomic policy meeting to set the tone for the new year.

It is usually held annually at the end of November.

However, this year it is set for December 12,

delayed for over ten days, which is rare.

The special meeting for setting the tone for the Economic

Work Conference was also postponed to December 9.

Foreign media pointed out, the delay reflects CCP’s internal

economic and political disagreements prior to its 18th Congress.

China』 National Bureau of Statistics announced on December 8,

that the inflation rate and industrial production in November have both declined.

On December 9, the CCP Politburo held a setting the tone

meeting for the Economic Working Conference.

They claim next year they will strengthen economic regulation,

continue to control inflation and maintain economic growth.

Prof. Xie from University of South Carolina-Aiken』 Business

School thinks the communist regime is in economic collapse.

The housing and stock market are on the verge of collapse.

The entire funds chain and finance are heading toward crisis.

The Economic Working Conference had thrown a way out

to protect CCP’s regime from what is on this background.

Prof. Xie: "Why should we control inflation?

It’s because China's inflation has been out of control.

More than 15% inflation makes people full of complaints,

which has directly led to social instability.

They control inflation in order to pacify the people,

safeguard social stability and the regime’s stability."

Prof. Xie doesn’t believe the 'real estate control policy,'

proposed at the conference, can solve practical problems.

Prof. Xie: "It was not fully effective because they (CCP) are

suppressing housing prices, which touched local elite’s interests.

When the capital investment funds collapsed and market

prices went down, this did not promote house selling.

When the house prices go down, people will be more worried

because they do not know how much the prices will drop.

If house prices continue to fall, people will see

their down payments being engulfed.

The Chinese people have gradually seen that the black hand

behind the real estate bubble is the elite class."

Since the end of 2007, China has adjusted the direction

of macroeconomic policy six times.

However, it is still difficult to stop

the momentum of China's economic collapse.

Chinese Minister of Commerce admitted on November 28:

"It is certain that the Chinese economy will face risks of going down next year."

This setting the tone meeting of CCP’s economic work

was postponed this year.

It shows the CCP leadership can’t do much

for the Chinese economy,

and it is clear that the CCP faces difficulties to set the tone

for the coming year's economic control policies.

A review article revealed that the high-level CCP

has disagreements over the next year's economic policy.

This is related to the 18th CCP Congress Meeting.

Each faction defends its own interests' plan.

Wen Jiabao will hand over power next year,

and certainly does not want to do anything wrong before that.

Thus he wants stability in the economic policy,

not like in 2008, spreading the money in a high profile;

Wen will not completely tighten the purse strings,

ignoring small and medium enterprises.

Wang Qishan, a likely candidate for 18th Standing Committee

next year, advocates 1 trillion RMB economy stimulus.

Obviously, Wang hopes to use a rising trend in the economy

to meet the next year’s 18th Congress Meeting.

Spreading money is the most rapid and effective way

to boost the economy.

Li Keqiang has little doubt he will take over the

Prime Minister from Wen, and does not want to inherit a mess.

Li hopes that the current economic policy will not be loosen,

but the economic structure to be adjusted by regulations.

It is expected the real estate control in the hands of Li

will become a long-term policy.

Overseas experts said, Chinese government' economic policy

in 2012, has little effect on China's current economic crisis.

China economist Alistair Thornton from Global Insight said,

China has a long way to go to get its inflation under control.

NTD reporters Lin Li, Xu Wen and Xiao Yu