【禁聞】溫家寶：動盪主因在內 促政改陷兩難

【新唐人2012年1月21日訊】中共總理溫家寶首次正面回應「阿拉伯之春」，他說：要尊重各國人民要求變革的訴求。他也強調，任何動盪都有其內因和外因，但內因還是主要的。學者指出，溫家寶看到中共將滅亡的趨勢，想促進政改，延長中共的命，但他辦不到。

18號，溫家寶在杜哈舉行的記者招待會上表示，要尊重各國人民要求變革和維護自身利益的訴求，因為歷史歸根結底是人民創造的，任何政府的責任都是為人民謀利益，除了這一點以外，政府不應該有任何特權。

溫家寶在「阿拉伯之春」問題上的表態，是中共高層首次，也是唯一的一次表態。

「阿拉伯之春」是指：自2010年年底在北非和一些阿拉伯國家發生的「反獨裁政府運動」，運動導致突尼斯的本•阿里政權、埃及穆巴拉克政權、利比亞卡扎菲政權先後被推翻。目前這場運動仍在發酵。

美國「南加州大學」公共政策博士葉科認為，溫家寶的這種表態，一是為了與中東新政權交往的需要，二是面對國內尖銳矛盾的局勢無路可走，所以他想通過改革來維護中共統治，而對老百姓有所讓步，但仍想把主權抓在自己手裡。

葉科：「即使溫家寶這樣一個表態，他最後在中共黨內體制當中，最後都可能不了了之，甚至溫家寶也處於被攻擊的對像。中國體制的力量，壓制性的這樣一個趨勢，是溫家寶個人無法改變的。」

「紐約城市大學」政治學教授夏明認為，既得利益集團綁架了國家的政策，對老百姓的疾苦越來越漠視。雖然溫家寶看到了中國的政治體制不變革，未來中國社會將發生衝突、動盪，甚至中共政權崩潰，但他無能為力。

夏明： 「中國的政治改革的一個最根本的障礙是，胡錦濤沒有改革的動力和改革的新思維。他目前的一些辦法全是在中國﹙共﹚專制集權體制下學會的政工幹部的老辦法。對於溫家寶來說顯然是很不幸的，他想改革的話，都是跟中共最高的人物——胡錦濤直接相左的。」

溫家寶的「政改論」已經提及了多次，去年9月，他高調倡議政治改革和黨政分開，並且改革黨和國家的領導制度，但沒有得到其他黨內高層的呼應。

對此，夏明表示，目前在海外甚至在國內，有越來越多的人認識到，不解體中共一黨專制，中國不會有前途。所以，在國內外掀起了一個「反對黨」的運動。

但是，葉科認為，還有比組建「反對黨」更好的辦法。

葉科：「退黨可以說是最和平、最理性也是最有效的辦法。因為中共能夠依靠的就是共產黨的一套系統，如果大家都不去追隨他，他所有的指令沒法執行下去。中共到時想鎮壓老百姓他也鎮壓不下去。」

不過，夏明指出，中共黨內的矛盾複雜、鬥爭激烈，未來中共可以犧牲一個人，來滿足老百姓渴望懲治貪官的要求。所以，目前溫家寶處在非常危難的一個境地。

也有學者指出，近年來，溫家寶在不同場合數十次呼籲政改，相反的，中共對政治異見者的打壓卻較以前有過之而無不及，因此溫家寶的呼籲，可能只是在政治舞臺的最後歲月想留個好名聲而已。

新唐人記者常春、宋風、周天採訪報導。

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Wen Jiabao praises Arab Spring Uprising,

urges political reform

Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Premier Wen Jiabao first

directly responded to the "Arab Spring".

He said: “We should respect the people』s aspirations in each

nation for change.”

He also stressed that any instability has its internal and

external causes, but the internal cause is major.

Scholars point out that Wen Jiabao sees the trend of CCP』s

demise and wants to promote political reform,

Hoping to extend CCP』s life, but he could not make it happen.

On January 18th, Wen Jiabao spoke during the

press conference in Doha.

He said that we should respect the peoples』 aspirations in

each nation for change and for protecting their own interests.

Because history is ultimately created by the people, the

Government』s responsibility is to pursue peoples』 interests

Other than this, the government should not have

any privileges.

Wen Jiabao』s declaration on the issue of "Arab Spring" is the

first time from CCP』s high-level officials. And it is the only time so far.

"Arab Spring" refers to: the end of 2010, "anti-dictatorship

movements" happened in some North Africa, Arab countries.

The movements led to the overthrow of Ben Ali』s regime in

Tunisia, Mubarak』s regime in Egypt.

Followed by Gaddafi』s regime in Libya. At present, the

movement is still fermenting.

Dr. Ye Ke, at Public Policy Division of "University of Southern

California", says Wen Jiabao』s declaration has two points;

One: the need to communicate with new regime in Middle East.

Two: no way to face a domestic situation of direct opposites.

He wants to maintain CCP』s rule through reform, giving some

concessions to the people.

But he still tries to grasp the sovereignty in its own hands.

Ye Ke: “Even with such a position from Wen Jiabao, in the end,

it may come to nothing in the end in the system of CCP.

Even Wen Jiabao will be attacked. As for the CCP regime,

he is not able to change it himself because of it』s power.”

Xia Ming, political science professor at "City University, New

York" believes vested interest groups kidnapped state policy.

And systematically disregarding more and more the suffering

of the people.

Wen Jiabao sees that if China』s system does not change the,

result is conflict, instability, the possible collapse of CCP regime

This will all happen in the future of China』s society.

But he can do nothing about it.

Xia Ming: “One of the most fundamental obstacles of China's

political reform is that Hu Jintao has no drive for reform.

He is not interested in the new thinking of reform either. His

ways are all old ones learned from cadres of political workers.

Under the authoritarian totalitarian system of CCP.

As for Wen Jiaobao, he is obviously very unfortunate.

If he wants to create reform, he is always directly at odds with

the top leader of CCP, Hu Jintao.”

Wen Jiabao's comments of "political reform" have been

mentioned several times.

Last September, he proposed high-profile political reform with

the separation of the party and the government.

He wanted reform the CCP leadership system of China. But

his efforts were not echoed by other high officials in the party.

Xia Ming said presently overseas or at home, more and more

people have realized that the CCP must be disintegrated.

If it does not happen, China has no future. So there is a

movement of "opposition party" at home and abroad.

However, Ye Ke said there are better ways to disintegrate the

CCP than the formation of an "opposition party".

Ye Ke: “To quit the membership of the CCP is the most

peaceful, most rational and most effective way.

Because the CCP is able to rely on is a system of the party.

If we do not to follow it, all its orders can not be implemented.

Then if CCP wants to suppress the people, it can not conduct

its suppression.”

However, Xia Ming pointed out that the contradiction in CCP

is complex and the struggle is intense.

The CCP in the future may kill a person in order to meet the

requirements of people eagerly punishing corrupt officials.

Thus, at present, Wen Jiabao is in a very perilous situation.

Some scholars pointed out that in recent years, Wen Jiabao

called for political reform many times on different occasions.

Conversely, CCP's suppression of dissents is worse. Wen

Jiabao's call may just leave a good name behind as he exits.

NTD reporters Chang Chun, Song Feng and Zhou Tian