【禁聞】中國兔年首加息 難降通脹猛虎

【新唐人2011年2月10日訊】大陸央行8號發佈公告，從週三起將一年期存、貸款利率分別上調25個基點，達到3.00%和6.06%。這是央行自去年10月份以來，第三次上調基準利率。分析人士認為，這次加息符合預期，但是難以有效遏制當前居高不下的通貨膨脹。

中國人民銀行於2月8號晚間突然宣佈：自2月9號起，上調金融機構人民幣存貸款基準利率，一年期存貸款基準利率分別上調0.25個百分點。這是大陸央行在兔年裡的第一次加息，也是自金融危機以來的第三次加息。

對於這次加息，英國《金融時報》認為，這是當局迫於通脹壓力，擔憂物價失控而採取的舉措。文章分析指出，1月份的消費者價格指數(CPI)升幅很可能創下金融危機以來的新高，最樂觀的估計也在5.5%以上。

另外，今年冬天以來，大陸眾多省份遭遇罕見旱情，山東、河南等糧食主產區，農業減產的可能性很大。全球食品價格指數連續7個月上漲。中國的房價依然快速上漲。此外，貨幣的超量供應並沒有得到改善，僅1月份，就有超過1萬億的貨幣供應。

《金融時報》文章還指出，上述幾個因素都可能導致物價失控、資產價格泡沫加大。

而對於這次加息的效果，經濟學家普遍表示，很難遏制通脹。中國著名的經濟學家茅於軾認為，這次加息幅度太小、時間也太晚，存款利率仍然遠低於通脹率，這種負利率造成了資產泡沫，是很危險的。

茅於軾：“這麼低的加息根本解決不了，還反而是鼓勵了通脹。因為你利息率是負的嘛！”

美國穆迪經濟網站的經濟學家圖•派克德向《美國之音》表示，很長時間以來，中共政府一直在提升利率和銀行準備金率，但是並沒有有效的遏制通脹或是經濟過熱。

數據顯示，中國去年6次上調銀行準備金率，並在去年10月以來3次加息。但12月份的消費者價格指數(CPI)較去年同期上漲4.6%，仍然居高不下。

里昂證券(CLSA)首席的中國經濟學家羅福萬 (Andy Rothman)警告說，提高利率對遏制通脹意義不大。因為這不會對糧食價格造成影響，糧食價格上漲主要是受惡劣天氣推動的。

聯合國糧農組織8號表示，中國的冬小麥共種植1400萬公頃，其中約516萬公頃面臨乾旱的威脅。嚴重乾旱給中國的小麥價格造成壓力，1月份的麵粉價格比前兩個月上漲了8%。

對於央行為甚麼加息緩慢，茅於軾認為，這是為了保護國有企業的利益，而普通民企則借不到錢。

茅於軾：“保護借款人的利益，損害放款人的利益。借款人主要是國企、國有大企業，所以就是對國有企業一種偏愛。”

「凱投國際宏觀諮詢公司」的資深中國經濟學家馬克•威廉姆斯預計，央行在第二季度可能還會再次加息。

新唐人記者秦雪、李謙、蕭宇採訪報導。

China Raises Interest Rates in Vain to Curb Inflation

On Feb. 8, China』s central bank announced to increase

1-year deposit rate to 3.00% and lending rate to 6.06%.

It is the 3rd time it raises interest rates since Oct. 2010.

Analysts believe the interest hike was expected,

but it won』t effectively curb the high inflation.

In the evening of Feb. 8, People』s Bank of China

suddenly announced to immediately increase

both the base rate and 1-year deposit rate by 0.25%.

This is the first interest rate increase in 2011

and the 3rd increase since the financial crisis broke out.

UK』s Financial Times analyzes that this is measures

taken by the authorities under the pressure of inflation

the fear of uncontrollable rise of merchandize prices.

January』s CPI is likely to peak since the financial crisis.

The most optimistic estimate is 5.5% or above.

Since the start of winter, many Chinese provinces

suffer from unprecedented droughts.

It is likely that the major grain producing provinces

like Shandong and Henan will suffer reduced harvest.

Global CPI has been rising continuously for 7 months.

China』s housing prices are still increasing rapidly.

The currency oversupply situation hasn』t improved.

In Jan. alone, 1,000 billion yuan was supplied.

Financial Times said, all of above mentioned factors

may cause merchandize prices to rise uncontrollably,

and the bubble of housing prices to inflate.

Economists generally believe that the recent

rate increase this won』t be able to curb the inflation.

Mao Yushi, a renowned economist in China said,

the interest increase was too small and too late.

The interest rate is still far below the inflation rate,

which will create real estate bubbles and is dangerous.

Mao: Such a small interest increase would not work.

On the contrary, it will raise inflation,

because your net interest rate is negative.”

Tu Parkard, economist of Moody』s, told VOA,

for a long time, the CCP government has been

increasing interest rates and bank reserve ratio,

but it didn』t curb inflation or the overheated economy.

China raised the bank reserve ratio 6 times in 2010,

and raised interest rates 3 times since last October.

However, December's consumer price index (CPI)

rose 4.6% from a year earlier, still remaining high.

Investment firm CLSA』s chief China economist

Andy Rothman warned that raising interest rates

have little effects on curbing inflation,

because rates wouldn』t impact the food prices.

Food prices increase mainly due to the bad weather.

UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) said,

China has 14 million hectares of winter wheat,

of which 5.16 million hectares face the threat of drought.

Severe drought pressures China's wheat price.

In Jan, flour price increased 8% from 2 months ago.

Why does the central bank raise interest rates slowly?

Mao believes that this is to protect state-owned firms.

Private enterprises won』t be able to borrow money.

Mao: Protecting the borrowers』 interests,

at the expense of the lenders』 interests.

The borrowers are mainly state-owned enterprises.

It has a partiality for state-owned companies.

Consulting firm Capital Economics』 senior economist

Mark Williams expects that China』s central bank

may raise interest rates again in the 2nd quarter.

NTD reporters Qin Xue and Li Qian