【禁聞】江派釋處理薄王方案 胡溫未必買賬

【新唐人2012年2月14日訊】重慶副市長王立軍逃亡美國領事館尋求庇護事件持續發酵，西方媒體多以「政治醜聞」來形容。目前，薄熙來的處境岌岌可危，中紀委已對王立軍、薄熙來貪贓枉法展開全面調查。中共將對薄熙來、王立軍案如何處置，引起海內外關注，同時激發中共高層派系權力鬥爭白熱化。

《博訊網》消息披露，中共9名政治局常委和江澤民等達成一致意見，同意對薄熙來和王立軍進行調查，並儘快給外界一個交代，希望在3月的「兩會」期間就有調查結果。

消息指出，目前，王立軍正在被調查他進入美領館的所謂企圖「叛逃」。

美國「哥倫比亞大學」政治學博士王軍濤表示，中共高層的分歧不在於是否調查，而在於如何處置薄熙來、王立軍。

王軍濤：「現在如果王立軍已經走到這一步，我覺得根本這九名常委，江澤民誰也不能再說不調查，王立軍說他出走原因是為了檢舉薄熙來、躲避薄熙來追殺，這兩個問題他必須調查，因為王立軍出走成都美領館這事，已經使得他們不得不調查了。」

美國「哥倫比亞大學」政治學博士李天笑表示，作為一名太子黨高官，薄熙來貪贓枉法的規模，遠比陳良宇案、陳希同案大的多，堪稱中共有史至今爆發的最大貪腐案，而且影響牽連甚廣。

李天笑：「薄熙來的問題實際上直接是跟周永康有關，周永康施行的是一種鎮壓民眾、包括六四、法輪功問題，他想持續這種迫害政策，那麼，薄熙來恰恰是他認為最好的能夠接替他的、能夠秉承他的鎮壓政策的最好人選。」

《博訊網》消息，即將上臺的習近平，不會像當初江澤民那樣修理前北京書記陳希同，也不會學習胡錦濤對付前上海書記陳良宇，預計薄熙來最壞的結果是政治生命結束，而王立軍被追究刑責在所難免。

外界分析，這顯然是江派釋放的處置薄熙來、王立軍的方案，企圖丟卒自保，不追究薄熙來貪贓枉法了事，但胡溫不見得會買賬。

李天笑：「有三股力量要搞他，至少有三股力量：第一股胡溫，從當初把他貶發到西南邊遠地區，實際上就不想讓他再回去，讓他自生自滅了。再有他在所謂的『打黑』過程中，又通過李莊案得罪了北京律師事務所彭真的兒子等一些太子黨人物。另外，一些老幹部比方說喬石等等這一股原來已經退出江湖的這批人，實際上也是不滿，對他老爹不滿。」

溫家寶日前表示，「任期最後一年能做的事絕不拖延」，表明胡溫當局最後衝刺的姿態。

美國「喬治梅森大學」教授章天亮指出，江澤民衰老重病，已快死了，十八大江派常委面臨退休下臺，而且個個貪腐纏身。從江提撥的三大軍頭郭伯雄、徐才厚、李繼耐最近表態力挺胡錦濤權威，顯示江派大勢已去。

章天亮：「和當時中央軍委兩個副主席表態連起來看的話，你會發現，這中間它是有必然的聯繫的；然後就是在2月2號時候，王立軍被免除了公安局長的職務，所以我想胡錦濤在之前他已經做了準備，如果他已經做了準備，箭在弦上我相信是不能不發的。我認為薄熙來下臺的可能性蠻大的，而對於他來說，如果不能體面下臺，一定意味著進監獄。」

外界分析指出，薄熙來、王立軍案如何處置牽動中共各個派系，但很難大案化小，而且，桀傲不馴的薄熙來也有可能狗急跳牆，未來事態發展難料。重慶事件將給中共十八大權力洗牌和重組帶來重大變數。

新唐人記者常春、李元翰、李月採訪報導。

Jiang’s Group Disposes of Bo and Wang, but Hu and Wen Might Not Agree

The incident of Chongqing Vice Mayor Wang Lijun’s fleeing

to the U.S. Consulate for asylum continues to simmer.

Many western media refer it as a"political scandal."

Currenly Bo Xilai is in a precarious situation.

Chinese Communist Party (CCP)’s Central Commission for

Discipline Inspection has started a full investigation of Wang Lijun and Bo Xilai’s corrupt conduct.

How will the CCP dispose of Bo Xilai and Wang Lijun has

attracted attention from overseas.

This incident has heated up the CCP’s senior

officials’ power struggle.

According to boxun.com, the nine CCP Politburo Standing

Committee members and Jiang Zemin reached a consensus agreement

to investigate Bo and Wang, and provide an explanation

as soon as possible to the outside world,

hoping to have a result during the "two sessions" in March.

Accordingly Wang is being investigated for his so-called

attempt to "defect” by entering the U.S. Consulate.

Columbia University Ph.D. in political science Wang Juntao

said the differences of the CCP leadership,

are not about whether to investigate, but about how to

dispose of Bo Xilai and Wang Lijun.

Wang Juntao: “Wang Lijun has come this far.

None of the nine Standing Committee members and

Jiang Zemin can refuse to investigate.

Wang Lijun claims he escaped to report Bo Xilai and to

avoid being killed by Bo. They must investigate.

Wang’s escape to U.S. Consulate has

forced them to investigate.”

Columbia University Ph.D. in political science Li Tianxiao

hasindicated that as a CCP senior official’s descendant,

the scale of Bo Xilai’s corruption is much larger than that of

Chen Liangyu and Chen Xitong.

This is the largest corruption case in CCP history,

and will have a very far-reaching impact.

Li Tianxiao: “Bo Xilai’s issue is directly with Zhou Yongkang,

who carries out the policy of repression.

Such as on the issues of the June 4th incident and the

persecution of Falun Gong.

Zhou thinks Bo Xilai is the best candidate to take up

his position and to adhere to his policy of repression."

According to boxun.com, the upcoming CCP leader Xi

Jinping will not be like Jiang Zemin who punished the former

Beijing party secretary Chen Xitong, nor will he deal with the

former Shanghai party secretary Chen Liangyu like Hu Jintao.

It is estimated that the worst result for Bo Xilai will be

the end of his political life.

While it is inevitable that Wang Lijun shall be held

criminally liable.

According to external analysis, this is how Jiang’s team wants

to dispose of Bo Xilai and Wang Lijun.

They will attempt to throw out the soldier to protect themselves,

and will not pursue Bo Xilai’s corruption crimes.

However, Hu Jitao and Wen Jiabao will not necessarily

agree on this.

Li Tianxiao: “There are at least three forces against Bo Xilai.

Firstly there are Hu and Wen, who demoted him to the remote

area in the southwest. They do not want him back.

During Bo’s so-called "anti-underground" movement,

he offended many CCP senior officials’ descendants in the “Li Zhuang Case.”

In addition, some of the CCP senior veterans, such as Qiao Shi,

are not happy with Bo Xilai or his father.”

Wen Jiabao said recently, that “He will not delay anything

during the last year of his reign.”

It shows that Hu and Wen want to charge forward at the

end of their reign.

U.S. George Mason University professor Zhang Tianliang

pointed out that, with Jiang Zemin severely sick and dying,

his team retiring from the CCP Politburo Standing Committee

during the 18th CCP Congress, and each of them having

serious corruption issues.

The three major generals Guo Boxiong, Xu Caihou, Li Jinai,

have recently expressed support for Hu Jintao’s authority.

Jiang’s team has lost its power.

Zhang Tianliang: “There is a link in the recent announcements

of the two Central Military Committee vice chairmen.

On February 2, Wang Lijun was exempt from his position

as head of the Public Security Bureau.

I think Jintao has prepared for this.

If that is the case, it is impossible for him not to

shoot the arrow out.

I think there is a large possibility that Bo Xilai

will step down.

If he cannot step down, he will end up in prison.

External analysis points out that how to dispose of Bo Xilai

and Wang Lijun is affecting various factions of the CCP.

It is difficult to turn this into a minor event.

Also, the unruly Bo Xilai may fight back.

So any future developments are unpredictable.

The Chongqing events have brought important variables

to the CCP and its 18th Congress’ power reshuffle.

NTD reporters Chang Chun, Li Yuanhan and Li Yue